The growing drift of people into cities from rural areas has been a key factor in the increasing modernisation of developing countries. But although urbanisation is crucial to a nation’s economic growth and development, it also brings with it increasing risks to businesses.
Between 2007 and 2050, the world population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion, according to data from the United Nations’ Population Division. During that time, the number of people living in urban areas is forecast to increase by 3.1 billion.
Most of the expected population growth will be in conurbations in less developed regions. Asia is set to see its urban population grow by 1.8 billion, Africa by nearly 1 billion and Latin America and the Caribbean by 200 million.
“Population growth is therefore becoming largely an urban phenomenon concentrated in the developing world,” the United Nations said in a 2007 paper.
The issue will be particularly acute in China and India. Between 2007 and 2025, these two countries are predicted to account for over a third of the increase in the urban population.
Much of this growth will be in coastal cities, whose growing affluence and development act as a magnet to migrants. But the effects of climate change are set to put these cities at growing risk from natural disasters.
There is increasing scientific evidence that global warming will cause sea levels to rise and will bring more frequent and more severe natural disasters, such as hurricanes, typhoons and extreme rainstorms.
By 2070, India and China will have five of the ten cities most exposed to coastal flooding. Their rapid economic development coupled with urbanisation and climate change, will mean Guangzhou, Calcutta, Shanghai, Bombay and Tianjin will be among those cities most vulnerable, both in terms of the number of people exposed and the value of assets at risk, according to a 2007 report by the OECD and RMS.
In China, growing trade and commerce, often supported by government incentives, are still attracting people to the coast. Between 1995 and 2000, around 17 million people moved to the coastal provinces of China, many of which are in low-lying regions at high risk from rising sea levels.
Other large Asian cities deemed by the OECD to be at high risk from flooding in the future include: Bangkok, Rangoon (Myanmar), Dhaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Hai Phong.
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines are among the other countries expected to contribute strongly to growing urbanisation. All are prone to natural disasters.
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